The U.S. Geological Survey's HayWired earthquake planning scenario examines the earth-science, engineering, and social-science outcomes of a hypothetical moment-magnitude (Mw) 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault near San Francisco. It presumes mainshock shaking using recent broadband simulation, but adds substantially to common practice. HayWired includes an epidemic-type aftershock sequence, coseismic slip and afterslip, landslide simulation from the California Geological Survey, and liquefaction from the US Geological Survey. To this broad and rich earth-science scenario, engineers added new fundamental research into earthquake effects on the built environment, including water supply recovery, building collapse, urban search and rescue, life-safety benefits of earthquake early warning, building-code performance, and public preferences for new buildings. Researchers performed a standard Hazus analysis using a new building inventory and considering aftershocks, quantified losses from fire following earthquake, and applied performance-based earthquake engineering to examine highrise buildings. A coalition of regional stakeholders is using HayWired to help businesses and individuals prepare for a large metropolitan earthquake and to outsmart disaster.

Dr. Keith Porter is a research professor at the University of Colorado Boulder and principal of the risk consulting company SPA Risk LLC. He has 30 years of professional and research experience addressing natural-hazard risk management and structural design. He led the engineering treatment of the US Geological Survey's HayWired, ShakeOut, ARkStorm, and SAFRR Tsunami disaster planning scenarios. He leads the new Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves benefit-cost analyses of code adoption, above-code design, and retrofit of buildings and lifelines. Other activities: the San Francisco Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety, the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project, PEER and FEMA P-58 performance-based earthquake engineering, the Global Earthquake Model, and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 Time-Dependent model. Dr. Porter is a licensed California Professional Engineer, with civil and structural engineering degrees from UC Davis, UC Berkeley, and Stanford University.